Cedar ParkSingle-Family HomesMarket Snapshot · September 2026
Prepared By
Lauren A. Petty, REALTOR®
Brokered by eXp Realty
Data Source
Unlock MLS · Austin Board of REALTORS®
01 — Overview
Executive Summary
Cedar Park moved from seller's-market conditions in August to a balanced market in September, based on market classification thresholds.
Closings declined 24.3%, while active inventory remained nearly unchanged. Estimated months of inventory increased from 2.77 to 3.64, and absorption decreased from 36.08% to 27.46%.
The closed median price fell 10.0% to $450,000. However, September's closed homes were smaller on average, and the average closed price per square foot declined just 1.3%. The median-price change therefore should not be interpreted as a 10% loss in individual home values.
Average seller-paid buyer closing costs increased 48.6% to $5,603, indicating a greater concession burden among completed sales.
Market Classification
Balanced Market
Months of Inventory
3.64 mo
+31.4%Absorption Rate
27.46%
-8.62 pts02 — By The Numbers
September 2026 Market Snapshot
Listing Activity
Closed
53
Active
193
Pending
21
Under Contract
42
Expired
10
Withdrawn
23
No HOA
51
Under $300k
2
| Metric | August 2026 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | 70 | 53 | −24.3% |
| Expired | 7 | 10 | +42.9% |
| Withdrawn | 20 | 23 | +15.0% |
| Active | 194 | 193 | −0.5% |
| Pending | 27 | 21 | −22.2% |
| Under Contract | 38 | 42 | +10.5% |
| Homes without a HOA | 54 | 51 | −5.6% |
| Homes priced below $300k | 1 | 2 | +1 home |
Combined pipeline down just 3.1%
Combined Pending and Under Contract inventory decreased from 65 to 63 homes. The increase in Under Contract listings largely offset the reduction in Pending listings.
17 fewer closings
Closed sales fell from 70 to 53 (−24.3%) while active inventory held essentially flat at 193 homes.
Closed Prices and Seller Concessions
| Metric | August 2026 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Median Price | $500,000 | $450,000 | −10.0% |
| Closed Average Price | $554,171 | $504,207 | −9.0% |
| Avg Price Per Closed Sq Ft | $217.94 | $215.20 | −1.3% |
| Avg Seller Paid Closing Costs for Buyer | $3,771 | $5,603 | +48.6% |
| Closed Price to List Price % | 97.14% | 97.15% | +0.01 pts |
Closed Price to List Price
97.15%
Avg Seller-Paid Closing Costs
$5,603
Closings With Concessions
50.9%
Smaller homes closed in September
September's average closed home measured approximately 2,363 sq ft, compared with 2,530 sq ft in August — a 6.6% decrease that helps explain part of the lower average sale price.
Higher concessions reduced proceeds
The closed-to-list ratio stayed essentially unchanged, but higher seller-paid closing costs reduced seller proceeds beyond the negotiated price discount. Positive concessions appeared on 27 of 53 September closings (50.9%); August had 30 positive entries across 70 closings, with two fields blank.
Concession averages include reported zeros and exclude blanks: August 68/70 records; September 53/53. Closed Price to List Price % averages the exported CP$/LP$ % field and does not deduct concessions.
Active and Pending Pricing
Closed
Median
$450,000
Average
$504,207
Avg $/Sq Ft · $215.20
Active
Median
$525,000
Average
$615,953
Avg DOM · 76.0 days
Pending
Median
$499,880
Average
$651,938
21 pending listings
Median up 1.5%, average down 1.9%
Active inventory's median asking price increased modestly to $525,000, while its average declined to $615,953.
Median down 8.9%, average up 8.5%
The pending median fell while the average increased — a change in price distribution, with higher-priced records influencing the average. With only 21 Pending listings, a few properties can materially affect these measures.
These comparisons reflect inventory composition rather than price changes on the same homes.
Days on Market
Closed Avg Days on Market
56.0 (+1.1)
Active Avg Days on Market
76.0 (−1.8)
Steady despite fewer closings
September's closed homes averaged approximately eight weeks on market (56.0 days vs. 54.9 in August).
Substantial marketing time
Active listings averaged 76 days, indicating that many available properties still required substantial marketing time.
Closed DOM is available for every closing in both months. Active DOM coverage is August 189/194 and September 190/193; blanks are excluded.
03 — Velocity Leaders
The 3 Fastest Moving Subdivisions
Ranked by average DOM among September closed listings, using subdivision names exactly as exported.
Reserve At Twin Creeks Sec 15
1 closed listing
Cedar Park Towncenter Sec 5
1 closed listing
Breakaway Park Sec 2
1 closed listing
Heritage Park Sec 4 and Three Points Sub also recorded 3 days, tying for third. Each result represents one closing, so these observations do not establish typical subdivision selling speed. Zero DOM describes recorded MLS exposure and does not establish that the property had no prior marketing.
04 — Market Temperature
Inventory, Absorption and Market Classification
Months of inventory rose to 3.64 months while absorption fell to 27.46%. The shift resulted primarily from fewer closings, rather than an increase in available listings — giving buyers more choice relative to sales.
August
Months of Inventory
2.77
Absorption
36.08%
September
Months of Inventory
3.64
Absorption
27.46%
September Classification · Balanced Market
Meets balanced-market thresholds of 20%–32% absorption and 3.1–5.0 months of inventory.
August Classification · Seller's Market
Meets seller's-market thresholds of 33%–49% absorption and 2.1–3.0 months of inventory.
Months of Inventory: Active ÷ monthly Closed. Absorption Rate: monthly Closed ÷ Active × 100.
Months of Inventory
Higher = more buyer leverage
Absorption Rate
05 — Month Over Month
September vs. August Comparison
Transaction Pipeline
Median Price Movement
Full Change Table
| Metric | August | September | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Sales | 70 | 53 | -24.30% |
| Active Listings | 194 | 193 | -0.50% |
| Pending | 27 | 21 | -22.20% |
| Under Contract | 38 | 42 | +10.50% |
| Expired | 7 | 10 | +42.90% |
| Withdrawn | 20 | 23 | +15.00% |
| Closed Median | $500,000 | $450,000 | -10.00% |
| Closed Average | $554,171 | $504,207 | -9.00% |
| Avg $/Sq Ft (Closed) | $217.94 | $215.20 | -1.30% |
| Active Median | $517,450 | $525,000 | +1.50% |
| Active Average | $628,086 | $615,953 | -1.90% |
| Pending Median | $549,000 | $499,880 | -8.90% |
| Pending Average | $600,733 | $651,938 | +8.50% |
| Avg Seller-Paid Closing Costs | $3,771 | $5,603 | +48.60% |
| Closed Avg DOM | 54.9 | 56.0 | +2.00% |
| Active Avg DOM | 77.8 | 76.0 | -2.31% |
| Months of Inventory | 2.77 | 3.64 | +31.41% |
| Absorption Rate | 36.08% | 27.46% | -23.89% |
06 — Between The Lines
Significant Market Trends
Seller's market to balanced
Months of inventory moved from 2.77 to 3.64 in one month, driven primarily by fewer closings rather than more listings.
Median down 10%, $/sq ft down 1.3%
Smaller homes closed in September (≈2,363 vs. 2,530 sq ft). The median-price change should not be read as a 10% loss in individual home values.
Seller-paid costs up 48.6%
Average seller-paid buyer closing costs rose to $5,603 — a greater concession burden among completed sales.
Pipeline relatively steady
Pending + Under Contract fell only 3.1% (65 to 63), as Under Contract gains offset fewer Pending listings.
Diverging pending measures
Pending median fell 8.9% while the pending average rose 8.5% — higher-priced records pulled the average upward.
Expired and withdrawn rose
Expired listings increased 42.9% (7 to 10) and withdrawals rose 15.0% (20 to 23).
Affordable Inventory (< $300k)
Affordable stock remains scarce — just 2 homes priced below $300k.
Homes Without HOA
Non-HOA options were 26.4% of active inventory (51 of 193).
07 — Looking Ahead
Forecasting Prediction | October 2026
The most defensible prediction is continued balanced conditions, with concessions remaining relevant and no clear evidence of a sharp sales rebound.
Closing volume: Combined Pending and Under Contract inventory declined just 3.1%, suggesting a relatively steady pipeline despite September's larger decline in completed sales.
Pricing: The lower pending median suggests potential for continued lower-priced closings. The higher pending average makes the direction of the next closed average less certain.
Concessions: September's higher seller-paid buyer closing costs suggest sellers may continue using financial incentives to reach agreements.
Selling time: Closed DOM remained near 55–56 days, supporting similar marketing-time expectations unless demand changes.
Market Classification
Continued balanced conditions with no clear evidence of a sharp sales rebound.
Closed Pricing
Lower pending median points to continued lower-priced closings; average direction less certain.
Concessions
Sellers may continue using financial incentives to reach agreements.
Disclaimer
My predictions are bar any unforeseen events causing outliers and it's possible my crystal ball may not be functioning properly.
08 — Let's Talk
Interested in Your Neighborhood?
Lauren A. Petty, REALTOR®
Brokered by eXp Realty
I'm a professional analyst and project manager turned REALTOR®, serving the information without sales-talk. That's exactly how I support buyers and sellers: strategy and calm so you can make clear decisions.
How I Work
- Deep knowledge of Austin-area neighborhoods, schools, and market trends — grounded in data-driven analysis
- Project-managed precision so details don't slip
- A plan-first approach: clear timelines, decision points, and what happens next
- Personalized relocation assistance and community orientation
- Negotiation strategy that's about price + terms (concessions, option period, repairs, timelines)
- Network of local service providers and resources